Gapporov Azimbek Nazarovich.
azimbekgapparov@mail.ru
Senior teacher at faculty of Natural sciences of Jizakh state pedagogical university.
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7395-1005
Abstract: this article defines the factors of urban development, analyzes the growth of the population of large cities in Uzbekistan and considers the prospects for the formation of cities by a million people in the country. In addition, the demographic processes of recent years are analyzed as a leading factor in the urbanization of cities identified in the strategic plan for the growth of urbanization in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Demographic processes of the population in the regions of the country, including birth, death and migration are the main factors that directly affect the quantitative growth of the population. Therefore, along with the study of the population of the studied cities, it is appropriate to fully analyze the demographic indicators of the population of the regions where they are located. In addition, population migration is considered as a factor of special importance.
The demographic factor, that is, the natural and mechanical movement of the population, is the first factor in the territorial expansion and socio-economic development of any region, including cities. Therefore, the main content of the article is a comparative analysis of cities in the country by population, including cities with urbanization potential. The average periodic growth of the population of the cities specified in the strategic plan, the differences in the birth, death rates in the regions where these cities are located, the peculiarities of the mechanical movement of the population were analyzed, and conclusions were drawn.
Key words: large cities, urban development factors, population growth, strategic goals of urbanization, demographic processes, regional organization of urbanization.
It is known that cities are regional objects that determine and direct the economic and social development of the country. Therefore, the quantitative and qualitative growth and development of cities in countries is a prerequisite for continuous and comprehensive analysis, study and conclusions. Modern factors of urban development today cover more and more aspects. However, the following can be identified as key factors of urban development:
- Demography
- Industry
- Transport
- Internal and foreign economic relations.
- Administrative management
- Financial, entertainment, scientific, etc.
The importance of these factors in the development of cities are determined by the attention paid to them and the scale of the formation of industries (Важенин А. А.1997. p 24) For example, the location of industrial enterprises, the construction of transport routes, the level of use of the natural and economic and social potential of production and services. However, some factors are associated with relatively uncontrolled processes. In particular, the factor of demographic development depends not only on the economic and social life of the urban population, health, quality of services, but also on the mental and spiritual state of people. Therefore, it is desirable to regularly analyze the demographic development of urban areas and the factors that influence it. In particular, a comparative analysis of the demographic development of large cities in the country will help assess the future development of these cities.
The formation and development of cities in Uzbekistan depends on various economic and social factors, especially on the demographic factor. Indeed, since ancient times it has been known that the formation of cities in Central Asia, including in Uzbekistan, was based on the development of trade. Natural and mechanical increase in population will be of constant importance. In the twentieth century, this tradition was joined by the development of industry. It is known that the mechanical growth of the population over a certain period under the influence of production factors plays a key role in the development of the city. It can also have a negative impact on demographic development, leading to a decrease in the birth rate. In any case, the rapid development of industrial sectors in cities indirectly affects the natural growth of the urban population, i.e. because of migration, which creates a positive picture for a while. Consequently, the development of industry is one of the main factors that positively change the demographic development of the urban population.
Although urban planning has a long history in Central Asia, it is not limited to cities with millions of people. There are many historical, economic, social and political reasons for this. During the twentieth century, a stable economic and socio-political situation developed in the region, and as a result, the positive results of the natural increase of the urban population quickly became noticeable. This process has been particularly effective in Uzbekistan. The industrialization of the country, as well as the demographic development of the population, had a great influence on the transformation of ancient settlements into modern cities. Today, cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants in the country are considered major cities. Most of these cities are provincial capitals, and in recent years, the population of cities in some provinces has exceeded 100,000. These cities are mostly industrial. At the same time, cities such as Shakhrisabz, Kokand, Margilan, although not focused on specific industries, are also included in the list of large cities.
Over the course of two decades of the 21st century, the population of Uzbekistan has grown rapidly. At present, the population of the country has exceeded 34 million people. The level of urbanization is 51% overall. Unlike other countries in the world, there are no significant differences in demographic growth between the urban and rural population in Uzbekistan. In other words, there is no significant difference between the demographic trends of the country’s urban and rural populations. Therefore, although the population growth of the country is slightly reduced, the urban population as a whole is naturally increasing.
Periodic growth of population of large cities of Republic of Uzbekistan
| № |
Names of cities |
Number of population (person) |
| 2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
| 1 |
Tashkent |
2 509 969 |
2 571 668 |
2 694 378 |
2 862 420 |
| 2 |
Namangan |
612 208 |
626 120 |
644 819 |
661 060 |
| 3 |
Samarkand |
538 211 |
546 303 |
551 746 |
561 754 |
| 4 |
Andijan |
433 901 |
441 700 |
449 994 |
458 505 |
| 5 |
Nukus |
314 928 |
319 583 |
323 830 |
329 030 |
| 6 |
Fergana |
283 791 |
288 850 |
293 512 |
299 150 |
| 7 |
Bukhara |
277 839 |
280 187 |
281 232 |
283 822 |
| 8 |
Karshi |
270 736 |
274 891 |
278 251 |
283 146 |
| 9 |
Kokand |
248 740 |
252 730 |
256 428 |
259 699 |
| 10 |
Margelan |
231 051 |
235 024 |
238 867 |
242 536 |
| 11 |
Angren |
185 905 |
188 360 |
191 322 |
194 436 |
| 12 |
Termez |
145 065 |
179 572 |
182 776 |
189 497 |
| 13 |
Jizakh |
174 400 |
177 447 |
180 516 |
186 870 |
| 14 |
Chirchik |
155 822 |
157 220 |
162 760 |
164 822 |
| 15 |
Navai |
136 374 |
144 158 |
146 865 |
150 611 |
| 16 |
Urgench |
141 685 |
143 750 |
144 964 |
146 721 |
| 17 |
Shakhrisabz |
137 076 |
139 113 |
140 519 |
142 671 |
| 18 |
Almalik |
129 111 |
131 111 |
133 378 |
135 228 |
| 19 |
Bekabad |
94 296 |
95 833 |
96 912 |
100 008 |
The author based on the data of the Statistical Committee of Uzbekistan compiled the table.
The table shows that there are few cities in the country that approach the level of a millionaire city, but by analyzing the periodic growth of the urban population, it is possible to predict which cities will pass the million mark in the future. Tashkent, the only millionaire city in Uzbekistan, has a huge impact on the socio-economic development of the region. The appearance in the country of several more cities with a population of more than a million people would significantly change the way of life of people in the regions, as well as the economy. Therefore, it is advisable to analyze the quantitative increase in the population of these cities. It should be noted that a short-term analysis helps to draw clear conclusions, so it is advisable to take into account the periodic growth of the urban population in recent years. By calculating the growth rate of the urban population, it is possible to make an analytical forecast of how long millionaire cities will appear in the country. At the same time, special attention should be paid to the economic and social significance of the territorial location of cities. In particular, the growth of cities located in a certain region leads to the formation of agglomerations. While recognizing this as a positive development, it is important that the same process be applied in all regions of the country. Thus, the regional organization of urban growth, which leads to a high level of urbanization in Uzbekistan, will play an important role in the future economic and social development of the country. Based on the considerations outlined above, it is advisable to analyze cities close to a million people and playing a leading role in the development of the country’s regions. It should be noted that in relatively recent years, the foundations for the formation of large agglomerations have been laid in the Fergana Valley region of the country. Large cities of the region, such as Namangan, Andijan, Fergana, Kokand, Margilan, have created favorable conditions for both population growth and regional location. In addition, in other regions of the country, there are modern trends in urbanization according to local conditions. This calls for different approaches to urban development research. However, based on the requirements for the development of cities based on the strategic goals of the country’s development, it is appropriate to conduct analyzes and draw conclusions in a certain direction.
President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. M. Mirziyoyev in his 2017 Address to the Oliy Majlis (Parliament) stated his strategic goal of increasing the level of urbanization in Uzbekistan to 60% by 2030. Measures for the development of Andijan, Bukhara, Samarkand, Karshi, Nukus, Fergana and Namangan and 12 towns as their sister cities were developed as special points of realization of this goal. Creation and acceleration of the factors that shape and develop the urbanization process is the basis of this strategy. As mentioned, the demographic factor is the most priority direction of urban development. Therefore, it is appropriate to study the characteristics of the periodic increase of the population of the specified cities, including the analysis of the demographic indicators of the population of the regions where they are located as a factor that directly affects the development of these cities.
The chart shows the annual population growth of these cities based on the table above. Apparently, population growth is relatively small. If we use these numbers to determine how long it will take the population of these cities to reach the million mark, it will take many years, almost 100 years. Nevertheless, that would be a mistake. This is because the quantitative growth of the urban population depends on many factors, the use of which can lead to population growth in the short term. For example, in 2001, the population of Samarkand was 361,339, the population of Nukus was 212,012, and the population of Karshi was 204,690. Over the past 20 years, the population of Samarkand has increased by 200,355 people; the population of Nukus – by 117,018 people, the population of Karshi has increased to 78,476 people. This means that different factors can affect urban population growth in different ways over the years (Гаппаров А. Н. 2020. 42 p.).
The expansion of cities is directly influenced by the processes of demographic development of the population of the regions where these cities are located, in particular, birth and death and, of course, migration. It cannot be denied that periodic changes in birth and death rates affect the population growth in the regions and the quantitative growth of the population of central cities. It is known that migration, in turn, is a factor that determines the population, and the positive effect of this phenomenon on the quantitative growth of the city’s population is evident in the assessment of the extent to which production and urban infrastructures are formed. Therefore, we believe that it is possible to draw a conclusion about the prospects of urbanization by periodically analyzing the demographic indicators of the population of the regions where these cities are located. First, it is important to give a comparative-periodic conclusion on the total population of the regions where the studied cities are located, because these numbers help to draw a conclusion about the value of demographic indicators. It is known that population location in the territory of Uzbekistan has historical, social and natural geographical peculiarities. Accordingly, the population distribution in the country is quite uneven and regions are reflected for population. Historically, there are areas that have been inhabited for a long time, and in recent years, they have been developed and become populated areas. For example, the small number of cities and the relatively low level of urbanization characterize Kashkadarya region, although it is considered a region where people have lived since ancient times. Other regions have similar characteristics. Therefore, the periodical comparative analysis of the numbers clearly shows aspects of the population location and demographic development in the regions of the country.
Informations about the population of the regions in which the studying cities are located.
| Regions |
2000 year |
2010 year |
2022 year |
| General number of population |
Urbanization degree % |
General number of population |
Urbanization degree % |
General number of population |
Urbanization degree % |
| Karakalpakstan R. |
1503000 |
48,1 |
1632000 |
50,2 |
1 948 488 |
48,9 |
| Kahskadarya |
2166800 |
25,4 |
2616100 |
43,4 |
3 408 345 |
42,8 |
| Namangan |
1924300 |
37,5 |
2258500 |
64,5 |
2 931 056 |
64,8 |
| Samarkand |
2670300 |
27,1 |
3119000 |
37,2 |
4 031 324 |
36,4 |
| Andijan |
2186200 |
30,0 |
2549100 |
53,2 |
3 253 528 |
52,2 |
| Fergana |
2664400 |
29,1 |
3074600 |
58,6 |
3 896 394 |
56,1 |
| Bukhara |
1419300 |
31,0 |
1612500 |
38,5 |
1 976 823 |
36,7 |
The author based on the data of the Statistical Committee of Uzbekistan compiled the table.
From the information in the table, we can draw some conclusions about the prospects of urbanization of cities located in these regions. In particular, the low level of urbanization in the Samarkand region, which has the largest population, leads us to believe that the future development of the city of Samarkand will have a negative impact. On the other hand, the city of Samarkand occupies a central place in the country in terms of socio-political and economic aspects. In this regard, it is necessary to recognize the wide range of demographic opportunities in the urbanization development of the Fergana Valley region. The high number of total population and the share of urban population in it distinguish these regions. Through the comparative analysis of the demographic indicators of the population of the regions in recent years, it is possible to come to more accurate conclusions about the demographic factor affecting the prospects of urbanization.
It is also important to study the demographic situation of the urban population. It should be noted that the natural movement of the population of the country’s regions is mutual in the regions and the cities located in them. Therefore, based on the analysis of the population of the regions, it is possible to form an idea about the demographic situation of the population of the cities located in these regions. As can be seen from the diagram, the birth rate in these regions is relatively high. When comparing with each other, we can determine that natural growth is somewhat lower than other regions based on the high death rate and relatively low birth rate in Bukhara province. Nevertheless, it is recognized that the increase in the number of the population is at a high level according to demographic criteria.
As mentioned above, migration processes also have a special effect on the increase in the population of cities. In addition, the balance of migration is a factor indicating the level of development of the economic system in the regions. Therefore, it is permissible to provide analytical data on the mechanical behavior of the residents of the regions where the studied cities are located.
The large number of emigrants in all regions shows that the conditions for raising the level of urbanization in the regions and organizing the living standards of the population based on the requirements of real urbanization are not yet sufficient. First, it is necessary to develop the production, service and transport sectors in the specified cities and the region where they are located, as well as to introduce sustainable principles of measures to increase the standard of living of the population. In this regard, it will be beneficial to use the experience of other countries. Only by activating the factors of joint development of economic sectors and the standard of living of the population it is possible to form highly urbanized regions in the country by the middle of the 21st century, increasing the growth rate of the population of these cities and at the same time comprehensively developing the same cities.
References.
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- Градостроительный кодекс Республики Узбекистан. -Т. Узбекистан, 2002.
- Урбанизация в Центральной Азии: вызовы, проблемы, перспективы. Аналитический доклад ЦЭИ. Т., 2013/03.
